Professor Jiang Xueqin has done some intensive research and have made some serious prediction. I don’t know how much of it is correct I will try to summarise it in simplest form just for info.
1.) All proxies of Iran has been brought into war in the middle east. The Hutis, The Iraq militia, The Hezbullah and all three coordinate and report to The IRGC.
Huti is controlling Red Sea. IRGC is controlling Strait of Hormuz. Hezbullah can control Swez canal. And Iraq can control Mediterranean Sea.
The Iran can fight this war for ever as it is getting help from Russia through Caspian Sea and China through Belt and Road Initiative.
The Petro Dollar of GCC is being affected and also of East Asia like Japan and China who take the oil and use it to produce consumer electronics and other industrial products. They invest their extra saving in USA that helps them in doing innovations. All this is petro dollar system and dependent on Free Trade.
The AI bubble is directly dependent on these three regions China, Japan and GCC.
2.) Formula is that Technology is product of Specialisation and Globalisation.
In times of War when Global supply Chains gets disrupted North can face fancy wireless phone shortage while South can face food Shortage.
There are many global flash points for war. And the main issue of such war will be water.
Global supply chain disruption will have have migration problem. The Right wing in developed countries like Europe will not be able to stop immigration from Africa etc as their population is aging. Their only solution of cheap labour will be immigrants not robots as global supply disruption will affect its production.
3.) The Trump card for Iran is to use all its proxies to disrupt global trade by randomly attacking. This will cause Global shipping insurance companies to stop working.
America cannot fight a co ordinated random attacks by Iran and it’s proxies.
But America can attack critical civilian infrastructure like Power Plants and Desalination Plants. It will be worse than using nuclear weapon. Tehran a major population area needs power supply for refrigeration of foods.
America cannot just declare it’s won. The whole Petro Dollar is dependent on two things. The World Reserve currency as Dollars and the aura of inevitability and invincibility of US military.
4.)In 2028 Trump may get a third term. If so then NY City which is democratic can have a face off with ICE and refuse tax to federal Government. The Federal Government will send force and can surround New York City and cut off food and water supply and this can escalate for many years.
3.)There can be a 9/11 type attack but this time on the financial infrastructure like servers. This can traumatize them and lead to self destructive violence by USA like post 9/11.
4.)Israel is facing a kind of civil war. The Israeli feels that this will bring peace and a Masia in the middle East. The secular Israeli don’t believe this. The solution could be to tranfer all secular Israelis to Argentina. Argentina is probably working closely with America and Israel and welcoming investment from Israeli citizen. They are even giving health care and pension to Israeli citizen who migrated to Argentina. One way this can be supported by the public of Argentina as well is making Leonel Messi the President and Argentina take back falkland Islands from Britishers.
5.)China and Japan will have a war. But they will avoid military war. China is self sufficient but Japan is not. It has to import lot of resources. China could deindustrialise in Global supply chain disruption but Japan cannot.
China consider Taiwan specially important for it security. If Taiwan and China joins hands they can impose Embargo on Japan.
At times of War America cannot give protection to Japan. It will not want to depend predominantly in USA like world war 2 as it led to its entering the war when America Embargoed Japan. Also it is making resource colonies in East Asia like Philippines, India and Australia so it can Embargo China.
China will not want direct confrontation with Japan as China is seen as a big bad dragon in this area and if China becomes too provocative then India, South East Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, South and North Korea and Japan will all unite against China.
But China can use North Korea as proxy against Japan and South Korea. As America will withdraw from East Asia because of War the tension between China and Japan will increase. This is also in the strategic interest of America as it wants Taiwan semiconductor industry like TSMC shifted to USA.
6.)Russia Ukraine war is mainly concentrated on the Eastern side. Till now Ukraine was fighting on this front alone. It was not adversely affecting Russia much. But now it has started targetting Russian refineries. This is making Putin Unpopular.
Ukraine is getting it’s drones from NATO countries like Germany. Russia will try to win by forcing provoking mass mobilisation of Europeans to Ukraine front.
It can do so by attacking critical manufacturing infrastructure in Europe.
For this it has to declare Total war because only then it can recruit s volunteers which will force mass mobilisation in force from Europe as well. This will cause instability and Violence in Europe and can lead to Government change.
USA will only benefit as Russia will not be able to export it’s oil and USA will have monopoly.
7.)The only way this could have been avoided was if USA had forced Israel to sign peace treaties with Arab Nations. Israel is dependent on USA for technology, weapons and financing. It should have avoided Clean break Policy of 1996. But he says it’s already too late. We have already freed the structural forces that will destroy Global Trade. In such situation Every country has to manage on their own. We have already created war like situation between Japan and China, between Germany and Russia.
8.)The Global trade disruption will affect the Chip production and Robotics and our goal of achieving Artificial General Intelligence and use it to solve most pressing problems like Climate Change or medical and reduce scarcity will most probably not happen. Instead AI will be used for more surveillance and as a control grid.
But he says the only way left now is to trust in God and focus on your families.
Because otherwise there is no order and structure to all this and everything is Chaos. There is no hope and there can be no light on Chaos.
He thinks there is really a plan and order and structure and reason.
Trust in God doesn’t mean to lock your room and play video games whole day.
If you really trust in God and focus on your families then it becomes your moral responsibility to say the truth. To tell them what is going to happen. Trust in God means to take action.
Why all this if there is God ?
Learning demands struggle, pain and loss.
What are we really here for. To earn a lot of money and drive fast cars ? Or are we here to learn what being human really is ? What is Love or to know what is God ?
What I think ?
I think all this is not considering the Environmental effect that is imminent and equally or even more capable of causing serious Geo political changes in the world. So when Professor says trust is God I think in practical terms it should mean Climate Change will run parallel to all this and probably become a much larger problem at hands that may change world’s perspective and will cause corrective action that may work in the long run. Otherwise we should start counting our days left on Earth because the picture is gloomy either way.